THE UNIVERSITY OFCHICAGO 9 RECORDApril 6, 1979 ISSN 0362-4706 An Official Publication Volume XIII, Number 2CONTENTS43 ENERGY: CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, PRICESAND CONSERVATION EFFORTS, 1971-1979THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGOFOUNDED BY JOHN D. ROCKEFELLER© Copyright 1979 by the University of Chicago. All rights reserved.THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO RECORDENERGY: CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, PRICESAND CONSERVATION EFFORTS, 1971-1979This report was prepared by the Office of EnergyManagement and Conservation, Roy P. Mackal,Director.I. Background— Consumption and PricesA. Consumption Patterns, 1971 to the PresentFor purposes of evaluating energy consumptionand the effects of conservation from 1971 to thepresent, campus buildings have been divided intotwo categories (see Chart A). The first categoryincludes 131 buildings with 6.7 million square feetof space. These buildings form a constant base,that is, a series of buildings which have not beennewly constructed or extensively renovated in theperiod since 1971.The second category of buildings includes theadditions to base, that is, new buildings or renovations which have been added to the University'sphysical plant in the period since 1971. The additions include four buildings which have been constructed during the period in question. These include Cochrane- Woods, Cummings, SurgeryBrain Research Institute, and Kovler. An additional fourteen buildings have been so extensivelyrenovated in the period from 1971 to the presentthat they represent substantial additions to theUniversity's plant. These include Rosenwald,Harper, Stuart Hall, Woodward Commons,Whitman and the Whitman Vivarium, GoldblattHospital, Culver, the Bookstore, Kent, Breckinridge, Botany/Erman, McElwee-Hicks, andGilman-Smith.For the constant base buildings, figures showthat over the seven-year period from fiscal 1971-72 to fiscal 1977-78, consumption was more orless constant (see Chart A). Average consumptionin the base buildings in the period was 13,804,000therms; the largest consumption figure is 5 percentgreater than the average and the lowest consumption figure is 5 percent less than the average. Someof the annual variation is explained by weather. Figures have been tabulated separately for theeighteen buildings which were built or renovatedin the period since 1971. The figures show increases in energy consumption in each year forthe additions to base. A major portion of the increases results simply from completion of construction or renovation and bringing of buildings"on line." Because of the additions to base, thetotal of therms consumed on campus shows annual increases from 1971 to 1978. As of the end ofcalendar year 1978, all additions to base will befully on line, so that additions to base will nolonger explain increases in consumption.Data on consumption indicate that consumptionof energy in general has not followed unusual patterns. In the base buildings, consumption hasbeen generally steady, with annual variations dueprimarily to weather conditions. Annual increasesin consumption are due primarily to additions tothe base. The increases in the University'sutilities costs, in short, are not due to unusualincreases or variations in consumption. At thesame time, however, as we will note later, there istremendous potential for conservation of energythrough various changes in campus energy systems.B. PricesPrices of gas and electricity have had a much moredramatic effect on increasing energy costs thanconsumption habits. The price of a therm of gas in1977-78 averaged $.2374, a figure which is 314percent of the 1972-73 price of $.0764. Similarlywith electricity. The price of a therm of electricityin 1977-78 averaged $.8212 or 202 percent of the1972-73 price of $.4064.For just the base buildings which maintained aconstant consumption of energy, these price increases have caused enormous increases in thecost of utilities. In 1977-78, it cost about$6,487,000 to deliver about 14,744,000 therms to43CHART ATHE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND COSTS— 1971-1978(Dollars and Therms in Thousands — 000s Omitted)1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78CoolingDegree Days1 1,081 888 1,112 760 901 818 1,460HeatingDegree Days1 5,079 5,190 5,166 5,266 6,720 7,449 7,025ConstantBase2 15,290 15,045 14,408 14,750 14,050 13,804 14,744Additions toBase 1,2143 1,2433 2,0513 2,7003 2,8703 3,0134 3,8884Total Therms 16,505 16,289 16,459 17,450 16,920 16,817 18,631Cost/Therm5 $0,200 $0,216 $0,244 $0,285 $0,335 $0,413 $0,440Total Cost $3,312 $3,525 $4,023 $4,987 $5,683 $6,948 $8,205UnrestrictedBudget 2,194 2,333 2,732 3,428 3,916 4,725 5,4831 Degree days are a measure of the cumulative temperature deviations from the arbitrary standard (65° F.). Heating degree days reflecttemperatures below the standard and cooling degree days reflect temperatures above the standard.2 Constant Base = 131 buildings and 6.7 million square feet.3Addition to base = 16 buildings; 843,000 square feet.4Addition to base 1976-77 and 1977-78 = 18 buildings (including Kovler and SBRI); 1,069,946 square feet.5The cost per therm includes not only fuel costs but staff and supporting costs — in short, all University costs.January 26, 1979the base buildings; in 1972-73 it cost about$3,250,000 to deliver 15,045,000 therms to thesame buildings. All of the increased cost in thisparticular comparison is due to price increases,since consumption in the base buildings in 1977-78 was lower than in 1972-73 by 2 percent. Theadditions to base on top of the price increasesmean that the total 1977-78 energy cost was 233percent of the 1972-73 costs; specifically, energyconsumed in fiscal 1977-78 cost $8,205,000whereas energy consumed in fiscal 1972-73 cost$3,525,000.C. Consumption and Price — Future TrendsEstimates are now that tnerms consumed in fiscal1978-79 will total about 19.4 million, an increaseover last year of 4 percent. (The increase is dueprimarily to weather and to an addition to base.)For the longer term, we are estimating that annualenergy consumption without additional conservation efforts (and without further additions to base)will be 19 to 20 million therms. With a continuing, maximum conservation program (see Section II),we hope to curtail consumption annually, so thatconsumption will be at 18 million therms in 1979-80, at 15 million therms by 1981-82, and at 12 million therms by 1983-84 (see Chart B).Prices will undoubtedly continue to rise in thefuture. The deregulation of natural gas will add tothe 16 percent trend price increase; gas price increases for 1979, it is now estimated, will totalabout 17.5 percent. Electricity prices, it isestimated, will continue to increase at about thetrend rate of 12 to 13 percent per year.II. ConservationA coordinated energy conservation program datesfrom 1976, but the program was intensified as ofmid- 1977 with the establishment of the EnergyOffice. From 1976, data gathering has been amajor issue, along with correction of campus meters (95 percent corrected as of summer, 1978).Once established, the Energy Office undertook(continued on page 67)44CHART BENERGY COST AND CONSUMPTION— PAST EXPERIENCE AND PROJECTIONS(Dollars and Therms in Thousands; 000s Omitted)FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79(est.) 1979-80(est.) 1981-82(est.) 1983-84(est.)I. Gas - -Therms 12,074 13,215 12,390 14,261 16,126 16,126 16,126 16,126Cost per therm .0764 .1088 .2053 .2374 .2783 .3262 .4371 .5610Percent Change +42.4 +88.7 + 15.6 + 17.2 + 17.2 +34.0 +28.3Cost $922 $1,438 $2,544 $3,386 $4,256 $5,260 $7,049 $9,047Therms with max. conser. 15,000 13,800 11,400 9,000Cost with max. conser. $4,175 $4,502 $4,983 $5,049II. ElectricityTherms 4,215 4,236 4,427 4,370 4,712 4,712 4,712 4,712Cost per therm .4064 .5879 .7221 .8212 .9239 1.0347 1.2831 1.5910Percent change +44.7 + 22.8 + 13.7 + 12.5 + 12.0 +24.0 + 24.0Cost $1,713 $2,490 $3,197 $3,591 4,353 $4,875 $6,047 $7,497Therms with max. conser. 4,500 4,230 3,690 3,150Cost with max. conser. 7- $4,157 $4,377 $4,735 $5,012III. Totals for UtilitiesTotal therms 16,289 17,451 16,817 18,631 20,839 20,839 20,839 20,839Total therms with max. conser. 19,500 18,030 15,090 12,150Total cost of utilities $2,635 $3,928 $5,741 $6,978 $8,610 $10,136 $13,095 $16,544Total cost with max. conser. $8,332 $8,878 $9,718 $10,061Cost per therm .1618 .2251 .3414 .3745 .4132 .4886 .6284 .7939Percent change +39.1 +51.7 +9.7 + 10.3 + 18.2 +28.6 +26.3Cost per therm with max. conser. .4273 .4924 .6440 .8280Percent change + 14.1 + 15.2 +30.8 +28.6IV. Costs— Grand TotalsOther costs $891 $1,038 $1,133 $1,227 $1,302 $1,406 $1,603 $1,715Grand total $3,526 $4,966 $6,874 $8,205 $10,011 $11,541 $14,699 $18,259Cost per therm .216 .285 .409 .44 .480 .554 .705 .88Percent change 31.9% 43.5% 7.6% 9.3% 15.4% 27.3% 24.8%Grand total (with max. conser.) $9,634 $10,285 $11,321 $11,776Cost per therm (with max. conser/ ) .494 .57 .75 .969NOTES:December, 1978 1. "Other costs" under IV., Costs — Grand Totals, are > costs of Universitystaff, primarily steam plant personnel and other support costs.2. Figures for FY 1978-79 and beyond are estimates.3. Assumptions behind predictive figures include the following:(a) no new buildings(b) no increases in consumption(c) approximate doubling of fuel prices by 1984(d) conservation in 1978-79—4.5 percent of electricity, 7 percent of gas(e) a linear conservation effort to 1984(f) added effect on gas price increases as result of deregulation:1.6 percent annually for 1978-79 and 1979-80;2.8 percent for 1981-82, 1983-84.(Increases on top of trend price increases)4. 1 Therm = 100,000 BTU; 1 Therm = 29.33 KWTT45177.611 5 3.44-.£IUULU2? ^O<t13° 80cnW 70CO« 60o~T"50r—r—£ 40o_JS 302010 CHART CSPECIFIC ENERGY CONSUMPTIONELECTRICITY^LED MENT cn CO 1—_lQ- —Jcn>01 00 3:0LUCO LUcn HiMTR0L VIRON LUID LULUc5 LUCJ>Li_ LU LU LU cnLU> 0 MMING :ESCo ^ o "Zl U_ O 0 <t 0 or LU ZD ==O LU O LU O a. a> 0 ^ <t CC O — 1— CVJ rO ^r IT) CO r-' OO >-cnOZ QQLU <CCO _J46CHART C (continued)i!97l-72 1972-73 1973-74 ,1974-75 tnrrr _Y////////M 1975-761976-7752.25r50.26cn >- >-LU cn DC I—-J ^ Q- oz S O t—<c »- 2 r- 2: I— <t 2:LU 21 — ID LU <t <c => <t <t _j 0cnCO —1cn McLEA MEMOR INSTIT 1 cnoGO HITM IVARI 1— QCOCD LDB VILI<t LU o <£ iii <C 0 <t_j CO _l _] ^ > ^ _J CD Cu LU <Ccn cn h-luO 5:-J=f COi ^ ° COoCO>-3:Q_OLUCD47CHART C (continued)CDCDcnCDCOcnLUQ_COcnCD_J 8070605040302010 i — 49.83|— 44.50j- 49.87if7,85123.36 26.79 ¦28.53 r23.4524.48H$2I.I9 .-22.93 [-25.10r-22.831 23.56 ,.26.36 [ii 1 24.52|ll.84 |H5.0I||4.5I r-23.06 *h&22.45i —1I-1 7.932!O crLU LU1— CO2! 2! <t _J 31n LU >- LU <£ 1—COcn_J LU<C r- 2:LUf—CO2: >-or 0_i<i2:0 CD31CDcr<r 310cn LUI—=Dr- CDorLU2:LU COCD COOCD2! _J<t1— J—2!LU2Scr >-CDO| AN-SMI ITALS 2? 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SCI. LAB.ALLEE ANIMAL LABORATORYCOCHRANE -WOODS ART CENTERWYLER CHILDREN'S HOSPITALSURGERY -BRAIN RES. PAVILIONGREENHOUSEBOTANY GREENHOUSE OFFICEBOTANY GREENHOUSEMcLEAN MEM. RESEARCH INSTITUTEGREENHOUSE STORAGEPECK PAVILION-NORTH WINGWHITMAN VIVARIUMMOTT- INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS CTR.SOCIAL SCIENCE CENTEREXPERIMENTAL BIOLOGYERMAN BIOLOGICAL CENTERLYING-IN HOSPITALABBOTT MEMORIAL HALLOILMAN -SMITH HOSPITALLAW SCHOOL QUADRANGLEACCELERATOR BUILDINGPICK HALL (INT'L STUDIES)1411-13 E. 60lh STREETSOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCHCENTER FOR CONTINUATION EDUCA.MIDWAY STUDIOSRICKETTS NORTHGOLDBLATT MEMORIAL HOSPITALPIERCE HALLBURTON - JUDSON COURTSBARTLETT GYMHUTCHINSON HALLMANDEL HALLBOND CHAPELHASKELL HALLLAB SUPPLIES5825 DORCHESTERBEECHER HALLGREEN HALLPUBLIC ADMINISTRATION CENTERAMERICAN BAR CENTERQUADRANGLE CLUBSUNNY GYMTOXICITY (930 E. 58th)KELLY HALLBLACKSTONE AVE. STEAM PLANTORTHOGENIC SCHOOLRESEARCH INSTITUTESENGINEER'S OFFICEBILLINGS HOSPITALBOBS ROBERTS HOSPITALWOODWARD COURTIDA NOYES HALLWOODWARD COMMONS, STUART HALL (BUS. EAST)ROSENWALD HALLCOBB HALLCULVER HALLHARPER MEMORIAL LIBRARYZOOLOGY BUILDINGBRECKINRIDGE HOUSEROCKEFELLER CHAPEL5737-39 DREXEL AVEBELFIELD HALLREGENSTEIN LIBRARYFOSTER HALLHICKS -McELWEE MEM. HOSP.. HIGH SCHOOLSHOPS f STOREROOMSUNIVERSITY HOUSEUNIVERSITY BOOKSTOREPHEMISTER HALL. JUOD HALL. LOW TEMPERATURE LAB.. ADMINISTRATION. JONES LABORATORY. ROBIE HOUSE. NURSES RESIDENCE. ANATOMY BUILDING. CENTRAL ADMN. HEALTH STUDIES.. MITCHELL TOWER,. INTERNATIONAL HOUSE. PSI UPSILON. ECKHART HALLi. HUMAN DEVELOPMENTi. DISCIPLES DIVINITY HOUSE. HITCHCOCK HALL!. SNELL HALLI. INGLESIDE HALLI CHICAGO THEOLOGICAL SEMINARYi. RYERSON LABORATORYi. WILDER HOUSE'. WHITMAN LABORATORY}. LILLIE HOUSE). BREASTED HALL). ALPHA DELTA PHIl. FAR EASTERN LANGUAGES -CIVS>. REYNOLDS CLUBHOUSE5. SWIFT HALL\. NURSERY SCHOOL TWOj. ALUMNI HOUSE5. NURSERY SCHOOLl WIEBOLDT HALL3. STATISTICS 'MATHEMATICSI LEXINGTON HALL3. BLAKE HALLI. GATES HALL2. FACULTY HOUSING3. WALKER MUSEUM4. FIELD HOUSE5. BARNES LABORATORY6. BLAINE HALL7. CLASSICS8. GOODSPEED HALL9 PRESIDENT'S HOUSE0. KENT HALL,1. 5741-43 DREXEL AVE.2 POWER PLANT GARAGE,3. 5643-49 COTTAGE GROVE4 5730 WOODLAWN GARAGE5 5736 WOODLAWN GARAGE6 804-12 EAST 58 th STREET,7 PRESIDENT'S GARAGE>8 PARKING STRUCTURE,9 6042 KIMBARK0 5482 S. GREENWOODII 5557-59 DREXEL AVE.I? 5518 S ELLIS AVE. O Oi-8.69I¦—+6.06—5.82¦ 5.68 '-3.50¦ 3.50-3.50¦2.30¦2.28¦2.27¦2.09¦2.07¦2.06¦2.06¦2.06¦2.042.001.98¦1.65-1.65 CHART ETOTAL SPECIFIC ENERGY CONSUMPTIONGAS AND ELECTRICITY1977-7866(continued from page 44)a survey of all 150 campus buildings to understandthe state of energy use in the buildings and to seekmeans for conservation. Campus-wide "quick-fix" projects were undertaken, including especially the establishment of the 68 degree and 82degree campus heating and cooling policies. Reduction of lighting to FEA standards was alsobegun wherever such reduction could be quicklyaccomplished.Once the campus had been surveyed, the Energy Office singled out the thirty largest energyconsuming buildings for special study. Reductionof lighting was accomplished in the major users asmuch as possible. Regenstein Library, originallythe major energy user on campus, was extensivelyrewired and continues to be rewired. Proposalsare now being developed for modifications of ventilation in the major energy consuming buildings,especially in laboratory complexes.Besides so-called quick-fix projects, the EnergyOffice began development of more extensive "retrofit" projects. The Research Institutes are nowbeing subjected to various minor and extensivechanges designed to conserve energy; the entirepackage of projects will cost about $200,000 butwill conserve an estimated $130,000 in energycosts annually. A computer system which willmonitor the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems has been installed in Regenstein Library. New energy sources and systems conversions have also been investigated.The Energy Office is currently coordinating astudy of the technicalities of establishing a solarheating system in the Center for Continuing Education. Various major modifications of the steamplant are under consideration as well as a projectto build a central chiller to replace all individualair-conditioning systems on campus.The Energy Office has also sought, based on itsbuilding survey , means for reducing energy waste.Modifications are currently being made in theWhitman Vivarium and in Allee Lab to curtailwaste. The office is also developing a program forinstalling storm windows and insulation wheredoing so would be cost-effective.Consultant studies have been undertaken toestablish retrofit "projects. The hospitals andclinics are now examining consulting firms inorder to find one which would best study the hospital plant for energy conservation purposes.The Energy Office in cooperation with the PlantDepartment has recently intensified a search forquick-fix and short-term retrofit projects in order to decrease the current projected budget overrunin the 1978-79 energy budget. The projectsselected include reduction of lighting levels andinstallation of lighting timers. A plan is being developed to modify ventilation systems to reducethe level of fresh air and the number of air changesin major buildings.The effects of the conservation program onconsumption are difficult to isolate because consumption is affected by many factors, especiallyby weather. At the end of FY 1976-77, total consumption (including additions to base) showed adrop over the previous year of 3 percent. The dropundoubtedly reflects conservation since the weather was no help. At the end of FY 1977-78, consumption was up over the previous year by 11percent; even in the base buildings, consumptionincreased by 7 percent. This increase has twomajor causes. First, the weather was a problem.FY 1977-78 had 1,460 cooling degree days, whilethe previous year had only 818. Second, the steamplant developed some mechanical problems earlyin the heating season of FY 1977-78 which werenot fully corrected until August. It is estimatedthat because of these problems, the steam plant,for much of the fiscal year, was using about 4percent more fuel than previously. Thus, the increases in consumption in FY 1977-78 do not preclude thd possibility of effective conservation;conservation was unfortunately overshadowed bycounter-balancing trends.Projections for 1978-79 currently indicate an increase of 4 percent in consumption over last year.This increase is due to a projected 7 percent increase in electrical consumption which stems inturn from the addition of SBRI to base and to alarger number of cooling degree days in the fall of1978 as compared to the previous FY.While overall consumption patterns do not provide clear evidence of effective conservation,such evidence does exist. Gas usage in Octoberand November, 1978, e.g., has been equal to lastyear's despite the addition of SBRI and Kovler tobase; in December, 1978, gas consumption wasbelow last year's by about 10 percent. Individualbuildings show the effects of conservation. Regenstein Library is perhaps the most noteworthyexample. Gas consumption over the period fromFY 1974-75 to FY 1977-78 fell by 50 percent andelectrical consumption in the same period fell by21 percent (see Charts C to E for consumption patterns of individual campus buildings).There is still clearly great potential for con-7servation on campus. There are four major means67of energy conservation which have been initiatedon campus but which can be very much expanded.A brief explanation of each follows .1. Reduction of electrical consumption. Forseveral years, the Plant Department has beenworking to reduce lighting levels to FEA standards and to replace less efficient with moreefficient types of lights. There is still a great dealof rewiring and relamping which can be done. ThePlant Department is currently working on thelighting in Cummings (where fully adequate lighting is now provided in the corridors but with lightswhich consume about 15 percent of the energyrequired by the lighting design). Similar work onlighting is underway in the Research Institutes andplans have been developed for modifying the lighting in Harper and in other campus buildings. Experimenting with lighting timers is also underway.2. Temperature controls — more careful, accurate, and complete implementation of the 68° heating and the 82° cooling policies. A more carefulcontrol of heating temperatures began in Octoberof this year for the campus in general and especially for the hospitals and clinics. Figures showthat consumption of gas in October andNovember was the same this year as last, despitethe addition of two new buildings. In August andSeptember, by contrast, gas consumption wasrunning ahead of last year by about 150,000therms for each month. This evidence suggeststhat a strong and steady commitment to temperature control can lead to significant energy conservation.3. Ventilation reductions. Ventilation uses energy in two waysl First, it expels from buildingsair which has been heated or cooled and draws infresh air which then has to be heated or cooled.Energy consumption is thus a function of the percent of fresh air maintained in a building. The second way in which ventilation uses energy is simply in the operation of ventilation equipment.Consumption by the equipment is a function of theamount of fresh air maintained in a building and ofthe amount of air circulation between areas withina building.Ventilation, especially the maintenance of highlevels of fresh air, uses a great deal of energy . It isestimated that about one-third of energy consumed on campus is used in ventilation. Experience in industry and at other universities and colleges has established that as much as 40 to 50percent of heating and cooling energy is consumedin ventilation. The potential for savings here isclearly very great. Savings can be realized quickly through reduction of the number of fresh air exchanges, as standards for the percent of fresh air have been exceedingly liberal, much more than comfort andhealth require. A proposal has been made to beginventilation reductions during the nighttime hoursin laboratory complexes. These complexes havebeen designed for 100 percent fresh air exchangearound the clock, not only for laboratory roomsbut for large, nonlaboratory and noncritical areas,such as offices, storerooms, machine rooms, andso forth.Fully satisfactory solutions for each campusbuilding would require extensive retrofit. Such aprogram is now being implemented for the Research Institutes; similar programs for other buildings will be considered.4. Computer monitoring of heating, ventilating,and air-conditioning systems. A computer-basedenergy monitoring system is now being installed inRegenstein Library and will be in operation inMarch, 1979. This system will monitor the building's room temperatures and air quality so thatheating, ventilating, and air-conditioning equipment will be automatically activated only whennecessary. This system will, in short, allow for avery finely tuned use of energy-consuming equipment, so that much of it can be turned off forextensive periods of the day. It is estimated thatthe system installed in Regenstein will save about$30,000 a year through reduced consumption ofenergy. After experience has been gained withthis system, plans will be developed to expand itor a similar one to other campus buildings. Doingso would, of course, allow us to implement conservation programs described in items 2 and 3above.III. Policies and IssuesRecently instituted policies, as expected, have resulted in some inconvenience. The heating policy,while leading to substantial savings, has also produced complaints and has led staff to install spaceheaters which may involve danger to building occupants. The proposed changes in ventilation systems in some campus buildings may cause concern about research activities, though it is ourhope that a full understanding of the importantcost savings which can be achieved will balancesuch concerns. Ventilation has already been reduced in some buildings without noticeable negative effects, and in some cases, with the positivebenefit of increased comfort due to a reduction inperceived temperature variations.68In the months and years ahead, increasing energy prices may force consideration of additionalenergy conserving policies which will have someeffect upon the way the University conducts itsbusiness. Such policies may vary from those thatinvolve minimum inconvenience, such as classroom lighting timers, to those involving greatersacrifice, such as consolidation of classes to reduce classroom use or the consolidation of laboratories in order to make ventilation reductions possible.These considerations should be undertaken inlight of the prediction that for the current fiscalyear the University will consume 19.4 milliontherms of energy, an increase of 4 percent over1977-78. The price of energy will increase, morethan anticipated. As compared to budget, itestimated that consumption will be over by 1.4million therms and that electricity prices will bebetween 5 percent and 10 percent greater thanbudget. The total (restricted and unrestricted) budget overrun due both to consumption andprices, it is now estimated, will be $650,000 to$750,000.IV. Future YearsAs noted before, we hope that conservation willreduce consumption in future years. Despite conservation, costs will continue to rise because ofincreased prices. Chart B gives our estimates forfuture consumption and prices. Figures on consumption are given with and without conservation. Figures on prices assume that prices willdouble by 1984. Other assumptions are noted onthe chart.Even if consumption of therms declines frompresent levels, rising prices will mean that theutilities budget will continue to increase as a percentage of the unrestricted budget. It is also clearthat conservation is the only means for getting theutilities budget under control.69THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO RECORDVICE PRESIDENT FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRSRoom 200, Administration Buildingo z' "3 x _ omj c ?3D O TJ2 > -n w 2.POSTAGAIDiO,ILLINTNO.31 O3-* O m S•ft — o0) 3